CNN poll: Perry in 2nd place?

posted at 3:10 pm on July 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
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CNN’s latest look at the Republican primary fight shows a big move being made by the man who hasn’t made his big move yet.  Mitt Romney remains in first place at 16%, but only within the margin of error, as a group of speculative candidates have crowded right behind him.  Texas Governor Rick Perry finishes second with 14%, and that’s not all:

    As Texas Gov. Rick Perry comes closer to jumping into the race for the White House, he’s also close to the top of a new national survey in the battle for the GOP presidential nomination.

    A CNN/ORC International Poll released Friday indicates that 14% of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP pick Perry as their first choice for their party’s nomination, just two points behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House.

    Romney’s two point margin over Perry is within the survey’s sampling error.

Right behind Perry come Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani, both at 13% and both within the MOE, too.  None of these close finishers have actually declared a candidacy, which means that 40% of survey respondents not only are dissatisfied with the current lineup, they’ve picked non-candidates in their stead.  That’s not good news for Romney, whose high profile from the 2007-8 campaign means that the problem isn’t a lack of familiarity with the electorate. Only 14% declare themselves “very satisfied” with the field, less than half of those who are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the field (34%).

Bachmann finishes at 12%, the last candidate in double digits.  Tim Pawlenty only gets 3% of the survey respondents’ endorsement, falling behind Ron Paul, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich, which puts a lot of pressure on Pawlenty to score big in next month’s Ames straw poll.  Curiously, when Rick Perry gets removed from the list of choices, Bachmann scores best, picking up three points to finish tied for second with Palin at 15%.

Among independents, there are some surprising results.  Mitt Romney finishes third at 12%, where Giuliani and Perry tie for second at 14% — and Bachmann wins at 15%.  Bachmann comes in third among self-professed conservatives at 13%, with Romney beating her at 16%, but getting edged by Perry at 17%.  Among both groups, Palin comes in fourth place.   Not surprisingly, Perry wins the South handily, 21% to the 13% for Romney and, er, Giuliani? Romney and Giuliani also tie for first in the suburban demographic at 14%, with Perry close behind at 13%.

Clearly, Perry will be a force if and when he enters the race.  If he’s the last person in, he may find even wider support, because right now it appears that Republicans are still holding their breat

Obama: It’s that gosh-darned divided government that has kept us from a budget solution, or something

posted at 1:50 pm on July 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
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I swear, you just can’t make this stuff up. Responding to a question at his town-hall meeting today that expressed frustration at the slow process in the debt-ceiling negotiations, Barack Obama put the blame on voters for the divided government. If Democrats had the town all to themselves, Obama says, he’d be able to spend more time this summer with his daughters:


Say, didn’t Democrats have the town to themselves in 2010? Didn’t they have an opportunity to raise the debt ceiling at that time, and pass a budget for FY2011 as well? In fact, Democrats still control the Senate in 2011. Where is their plan to deal with the issues? For that matter, where is Obama’s?

After all, the House has now passed two of their own plans, the Ryan budget plan that would have (slowly) brought the federal government’s budgets into balance, and the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act that would have forced Washington to do it a lot more quickly. Where the Democrats still have control, they have produced … nothing. Except, of course, whining about how presidenting is kinda tough.

Microsoft sued over Kinect for patent infringement

A Bay Village, Ohio, company has sued Microsoft for allegedly infringing on its patents with the rapidly selling Kinect motion-sensing video game controller.

Microsoft's Kinect for Xbox 360
(Credit: CNET)

Impulse Technology filed the suit in federal court in Delaware, accusing Microsoft and several game makers--including Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, and THQ--of violating patents related to, among other things, tracking and assessing movement skills in multidimensional space. The suit was filed on July 1, but was only recently written about by the Web site Law360.

Impulse claims that the Kinect violates seven patents, issued from 2001 to last year. In its suit, the company said it notified Microsoft in March about the patents. The suit does not mention if Microsoft replied to the notification. And Impulse's attorney did not return a call.

Microsoft declined to address the specific charges, but said it works hard to make sure its products don't violate patent holders' rights.

"While we can't comment about this specific case, Microsoft invests heavily in protecting our intellectual property rights and has hundreds of pending and issued patents covering Kinect," Kevin Kutz, director of public affairs at Microsoft, said in a statement.

DOJ takes swipe at EFF over encryption passphrases

The U.S. Department of Justice took a thinly veiled swipe at an online civil liberties group that's arguing a Colorado woman can't be forced to decrypt her laptop for police inspection.

In a legal brief filed yesterday in what is likely to be a precedent-setting case, the Justice Department claimed that the Electronic Frontier Foundation had previously agreed that being forced to type in your passphrase was legal and did not violate Americans' rights to self-incrimination.

Prosecutors are hoping to convince a federal judge to order Ramona Fricosu, accused of running a mortgage scam, to decrypt an encrypted laptop that police found in her bedroom during a raid of her home. Fricosu has been charged with bank fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering as part of an alleged attempt to use falsified court documents to illegally gain title to homes near Colorado Springs.
EFF staff attorney Hanni Fakhoury

EFF staff attorney Hanni Fakhoury
(Credit: EFF)

EFF's Know Your Rights guide, prosecutors said, warns the public that "a grand jury or judge may still order you to disclose your data in an unencrypted format under certain circumstances."

The upshot, they said, is that "EFF's 'Know Your Rights' publication correctly states that a judge may properly order the production of unencrypted data consistent with the Fifth Amendment." (The Fifth Amendment broadly protects Americans' right to remain silent--see CNET's Q&A with defense attorney Phil Dubois.)

EFF staff attorney Hanni Fakhoury, a former public defender in San Diego, wrote the guide. Fakhoury told CNET today that the Justice Department isn't exactly describing his work fairly:

    This (the guide) is simply stating the obvious: whether the Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination applies is fact-dependent. EFF believes that under the facts presented in the Fricosu case, the privilege applies and prevents the government's attempt to force Ms. Fricosu to decrypt the laptop. Under a different set of facts, the outcome might be different; something that's true in most areas of the law.

    This is obviously a situation in which the government is trying to do something it has rarely tried to do before, so the courts are just starting to consider it. That is why EFF got involved in the first place, to assist the court by providing it with what we think the law should be. I'm flattered the government believes the guide I wrote is legal precedent, and I look forward to the day when that's actually the case.

The Justice Department also argues that Fricosu's Fifth Amendment rights are effectively nullified because the government obtained the laptop through a search warrant, not a grand jury subpoena.

"Evidence obtained through search warrants does not implicate the self-incrimination clause because search warrants do not compel individuals to make statements..." prosecutors said. "The applied-for order would use as the source of evidence only material seized with a warrant; it would not make use of any compelled statements."

Prosecutors have stressed that they don't actually require the passphrase itself, meaning Fricosu would be permitted to type it in and unlock the files without anyone looking over her shoulder. They say they're not demanding "the password to the drive, either orally or in written form," and that they know the laptop is hers because of a legally intercepted phone call she made to someone in prison.

Competing legal analogies: What's a PGP passphrase like?
The question of whether criminal defendants can be legally compelled to cough up their encryption passphrase remains an unsettled one, with law review articles for at least the last 15 years arguing the merits of either side of the issue. A U.S. Justice Department attorney wrote an article in 1996, for instance, titled "Compelled Production of Plaintext and Keys."

Much of the debate has been over which of two analogies comes closest to the truth. Prosecutors tend to view PGP passphrases as akin to someone possessing a key to a safe filled with incriminating documents. That person can, in general, be legally compelled to hand over the key. Other examples include the U.S. Supreme Court saying that defendants can be forced to provide fingerprints, blood samples, or voice recordings.

On the other side are civil libertarians citing other Supreme Court cases that conclude Americans can't be forced to give "compelled testimonial communications" and extending the legal shield of the Fifth Amendment to encryption passphrases. Courts already have ruled that such protection extends to the contents of a defendant's minds, so why shouldn't a passphrase be shielded as well?

While the U.S. Supreme Court has not confronted the topic, a handful of lower courts have.

In March 2010, a federal judge in Michigan ruled that Thomas Kirschner, facing charges of receiving child pornography, would not have to give up his password. That's "protecting his invocation of his Fifth Amendment privilege against compelled self-incrimination," the court ruled (PDF).

A year earlier, a Vermont federal judge concluded that Sebastien Boucher, who a border guard claims had child porn on his Alienware laptop, did not have a Fifth Amendment right to keep the files encrypted.

Update 3:15 p.m. PT: I've heard back from Phil Dubois, Fricosu's criminal defense attorney. Dubois' position remains, he said in an e-mail message:

    That to force my client (assuming that she has the ability) to decrypt the hard drive would be an unreasonable and therefore unconstitutional search and so a Fourth Amendment violation; and

    That to force her to decrypt the drive would not be the same as compelling her to surrender the key to a safe, the new technology making that analogy inapposite, but would instead be compelling her to use the content of her mind to perform an affirmative act to assist the government to prosecute her, which raises the Fifth Amendment problem.

AT&T customers try to block merger with T-Mobile

Talk about a David and Goliath story. The New York-based law firm of Bursor & Fisher is working with some AT&T customers in the hopes of blocking AT&T's proposed $39 billion acquisition of T-Mobile.
AT&T to buy T-Mobile

The firm is working on behalf of a small group of AT&T customers to demand arbitration from the company, which is the second largest wireless phone company in the U.S. and one of the biggest political contributors in the country. In its arbitration filings, Bursor & Fisher alleges that the deal between AT&T and T-Mobile would violate the Clayton Antitrust Act and harm competition in the wireless market. The firm has already signed up 11 AT&T customers, and it's soliciting more on its Web site: FightTheMerger.com. It filed the first arbitration demand Thursday in a 236-page document.

The main argument in the arbitration request is that the merger will lead to higher prices and diminished service, which would harm consumers. The customers are asking that the merger be blocked or at the very least that certain requirements be put on the merger, such as AT&T divesting some wireless spectrum and stopping its practice of entering into exclusive contracts with handset makers.

The Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission are already reviewing the merger. It's expected to take the agencies a year to complete their evaluation of the merger. The Justice Department in particular will be looking at potential antitrust claims while the FCC's main obligation is to ensure that the merger will serve the public interest, since the wireless licenses that AT&T and T-Mobile hold are regulated by the FCC. The FCC said this week that it has stopped the clock on its review as it obtains additional information from AT&T.

Scott Bursor, a partner at Bursor & Fisher, said his firm expects to file hundreds of these cases. While arbitration is typically used to dispute individual complaints, such as an erroneous charge on a bill, Bursor said he thinks the process can also be used for antitrust disputes, since class-action lawsuits are not available to AT&T customers.

"The law gives private parties the opportunity to sue in antitrust cases," Bursor said. "So we are using this arbitration process to help consumers, who are barred from filing class-action suits."

In its contracts, AT&T prohibits customers from suing the company directly or as part of a class-action lawsuit. A U.S. Supreme court decision in April upheld this practice. Instead, consumers must use an arbitration process. But consumers are also prohibited from filing arbitration as a group or class and instead must file claims individually, which is why Bursor has said the company will file hundreds of these claims.

And because each arbitration request is assigned to a separate judge, each case will be evaluated independently, which in theory could increase the chances of a beneficial outcome for the customers filing the complaint.

AT&T said in a statement that the arbitration process is not intended to hear class-action cases, such as the ones Bursor plans to file.

"The claims made by the Bursor & Fisher Law Firm are completely without merit," the company's statement said. "An arbitrator has no authority to block the merger or affect the merger process in any way. Our arbitration provision allows customers to resolve their individual disputes with AT&T in a prompt and consumer-friendly manner."

Bursor's firm has worked with wireless customers in the past on class-action suits over early-termination fees. His firm also sued AT&T over mobile-handset exclusivity. Michael Aschenbrener of Aschenbrener Law in Chicago, who has also brought class-action suits against wireless companies in the past, said that using the arbitration process to air antitrust complaints is unusual. So it's difficult to say if it will be effective. But he said at the very least it might get these consumers' concerns heard.

"Arbitration is a new approach in this context but necessary in light of recent anticonsumer Supreme Court precedent," he said. "Whether these consumers will be successful remains to be seen, but this demonstrates that consumers want to be heard and will be heard--no matter how much the courts and big businesses try to silence them."

These AT&T consumers involved in the arbitration are not the only ones opposed to AT&T's plan to buy T-Mobile. Sprint Nextel has also expressed its opposition. And this week, Senator Herb Kohl, who heads up a subcommittee on antitrust matters, asked regulators to block the deal.

Some states are also taking a closer look at the merger. California's Public Utility Commission is examining it. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced in March that his office would "undertake a thorough review of AT&T's acquisition of T-Mobile" and analyze the merger for "potential anticompetitive effects on consumers and businesses."

Meanwhile, AT&T has also garnered support from a number of groups. There are already governors in 26 states that have signed on to support the merger. And 76 members of Congress have also expressed their support for the merger.

AT&T said earlier this week during its earnings call that it is confident it will get the approval for the merger. And the company said it expects the deal to close in the first quarter of next year.

EU Does Their Part!

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews.com on Jul 22, 2011 01:21:21 GMT



Yesterday’s market reaction to the news out of the EU could not have been a more perfect scenario for those searching for a ray of hope that the global economy might actually be able to move forward. News out of Brussels was that indeed a solution to the Euro debt crisis had been agreed upon, going a lot further than most had thought possible.



While the markets are still trying to judge the merits of the resolution, the EU took some bold steps to try to stem the crisis. Some of the highlights: Greece gets a larger bailout—but needs to enact major austerity to receive it; Greece gets AAA-rated terms for borrowing from the ECB and EFSF, as does Portugal and Ireland if needed; the ECB will buy bonds and essentially be a “bidder of last resort”, all but daring speculators to try to drive yields higher on Spain, Italy, or others (think ‘don’t fight the Fed’). These are extraordinary measures that will give the debt-burdened countries a chance at redemption. However, the question remains as to whether or not the austerity required is too draconian, and the likelihood that it can be accomplished. One other thing to note however is that the EFSF was not expanded so the size of the emergency facility remains at 440 billion euros, which hopefully is enough to manage future liquidity issues.



While this serves the markets purposes for now, it appears likely that the EU economy is going to shrink in size as austerity is enacted throughout the region. One early sign is that German IFO confidence figures have come in lower than expected, though Euro zone industrial orders picked up for the month.



The rally that took place yesterday has followed through to this morning, with stocks in Asia and Europe up overnight, as are commodities. Next up is the US debt ceiling debate, and the politics surrounding it has gotten so nasty that it’s almost become comical. A deal will definitely get done and the only question is at whose expense.



In the forex market:



Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher, easily clearing the resistance identified yesterday at 1.08 vs. USD. Export and import prices have risen, which could give rise to inflation down under.



Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is has rocketed higher to 86.75, just south of my target of .87 from earlier this weak. Inflation expectations are rising, which means that so are interest rate hike expectations as well.



Loonie (CAD): The only other fundamental data out his morning has come from Canada, which reported lower than expected CPI data that has sent the Loonie lower, despite oil trading up to $100. Core CPI came in at 1.3% vs. an expectation of 1.9%, and the headline figure came in at 3.1% vs. an expected 3.6%. This may buy the BOC time to allow the economy to continue with lower rates as prices seemingly are under control. Better than expected retail sales figures showed a gain of .5% vs. an expected .3%, which shows economic improvement. (Click chart to enlarge)



Euro (EUR): The Euro has pulled back some to under 1.44 vs. USD as markets are set to open slightly lower here in the US. While the market seemed pleased with the initial resolution form yesterday, as more is learned about the deal, the less enamored the markets may become. (Click chart to enlarge)



Pound (GBP): The Pound is also pulling back after yesterday’s rally and with no news on the docket may be a victim of having traveled too far, too fast.



Swissie (CHF): The SNB has been thankful of late that risk is abating in the global economy as the franc becomes less desirable when safe-havens are out of favor.



Dollar (USD): I’ve read some analyses that claim that yesterday’s massive moves were more a function of Dollar weakness than Euro strength. The markets are looking for any indication that the global economy is stabilizing, as the appetite for risk is increasing as cheap money floods the globe. We need a compromise on the debt ceiling debate to really instill confidence.



Yen (JPY): The Yen is picking up some strength as risk appetites are turning to risk aversion as the morning moves forward. Nevertheless it was lower yesterday as carry trades were re-established.



As I said yesterday, “buy the rumor, sell the news”. While the Euro debt crisis resolution may be better news than expected, the devil is always in the details. As the markets start the comprehend all that needs to be done, opinions over the deal may change.



While we are seeing a pull-back in the early action here in the US, this could be more of a function of jittery markets still being fearful heading into the weekend. The debt ceiling debate rages on here in the US and should it seem less likely that a deal can be reached, then the markets may react quickly.



So now it is up to the US, and hopefully we can cast the politics aside for the better of all and not just a specific political base.



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Solutions In Sight?

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews.com on Jul 19, 2011 01:27:19 GMT



This morning markets are rallying as the Euro zone moves one step closer toward a solution to the debt crisis that has been plaguing them and the global markets in general. The Greek Finance Minister came out and said that an agreement on debt is “attainable” and the ECB seems ready to deal as well.

News in the US today has the Republicans largely going through the political motions of introducing a bill on the debt ceiling debate that will be vetoed by the President if it passes the House, but rumors of a “secret meeting” taking place have raised hopes that a compromise can be reached.



The global markets are in need of some sort of stability as these crises have left Central banks around the globe in limbo as they need to allow these situations to play out before they can potentially raise interest rates to cool off their own expanding economies. At least that’s the thought in Australia and Canada as the release of the minutes from the RBA rate policy meeting and the BOC interest rate decision confirm.



Rounding out the morning are US Housing Starts and Building Permits figures which are likely to beat expectations as the bar has been lowered so much after last month’s dismal reports. So the markets are in risk-taking mode this morning, with global stocks higher, as well as oil and gold.



In the forex market:



Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher on risk appetite as the minutes from the RBA rate policy meeting confirmed that the RBA was in “wait and see” mode with regard to the Euro debt and US debt ceiling crises. Inflation is a mild concern but does not outweigh the overall risk to global economic stability.



Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also higher this morning on risk appetite and the carry-over effects of the CPI data that was reported earlier this week. The RBNZ may want to “normalize” rate policy to slow down inflation.



Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher this morning as oil is trading higher despite the fact that the market expects the BOC to leave interest rates unchanged this morning at 1%. The reasoning behind this is similar to that of the RBA, but the market is expecting at least 2 quarter point rate hikes before the end of the year, the first of which could come at the September meeting. (Click chart to enlarge)



Euro (EUR): The Euro is also trading up despite the weaker than expected ZEW economic survey figures that were reported earlier this morning. The big news is that Euro zone ministers are moving closer to finding a solution to the debt crisis, as the ECB has indicated it may be more “flexible”. Yields on a Spanish bond offering soared from just 1 month ago. (Click chart to enlarge)



Pound (GBP): With no news on the docket, the Pound is drifting higher ahead of tomorrow’s release of the BOE rate policy meeting minutes.



Swissie (CHF): The Swissie is lower across the board as demand for safe-havens has decreased due to increased risk appetite. Gold is also trading slightly lower, though still above $1600.



Dollar (USD): The Dollar Index is falling this morning after much better than expected Housing Starts and Building Permits figures showed that the housing market may not be dead just yet. Improving economic data may mitigate fears of QE3, but we’re not out of the woods yet.



Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly lower on risk themes and department store sales came in better than expected, showing signs that domestic demand may be improving as a result of the devastating natural disasters.



It’s not over until it’s over, as the saying goes, and these words couldn’t ring more true with regard to the Euro debt crisis and the US debt ceiling debate. While markets may believe that solutions are near, risk still abounds.



Meanwhile, just to update, the BOC did indeed leave rates unchanged, but the hawkish tone could mean a rate hike at September’s meeting.



Until that time, watch the economic data to see signs of economic improvement globally and whether or not Central bankers will be able to address their own domestic economies.



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Euro Bank Stress Tests In Focus!

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews.com on Jul 15, 2011 01:18:34 GMT

Stressful Situations!

Specifically, I am referring to two events taking place around the globe that have effectively put the markets on edge. The first today is the release of the results of the European bank stress tests, and then the on-going saga of the debt ceiling debate here in the US.

The bank stress tests are intended to allay the fears of the marketplace that the European banks are adequately capitalized and that they could withstand a major shock to the system such as sovereign default. This will likely throw a few banks under the bus which is obviously bad for some individual players, but this has to be done in order to ensure “credibility” that the tests were sufficient.

The debt ceiling debate is likely to be more drawn out as the politics behind the scenes have gotten so ugly that neither side is willing to budge. So we are headed on a collision course toward disaster unless one side is willing to compromise. S&P has put the US on negative credit watch and said that a debt downgrade may be forthcoming if a deal is not reached.

This has induced some mild risk aversion in the markets today, with stocks flat to slightly lower and commodities pulling back.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly lower on risk aversion and that money flows are leaving the Aussie in favor of the Kiwi on rate hike expectations.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher despite the risk in the marketplace after the much better than expected GDP report showed that the economy was growing at 1.4% vs. an expectation of .5% after having to deal with the two earthquakes. The market believes that this positive growth story means that the RBNZ could be next to raise rates. (Click chart to enlarge)

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is somewhat higher against the Dollar despite lower oil prices and mild risk aversion in the markets. Canada’s close ties to the US economy make the Loonie slightly more desirable when the risk comes from Europe rather than the US.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is slightly lower ahead of the bank stress tests results that are due out at 12PM EST. Trade balance figures came in better than expected, though the market is more concerned with the news at noon.

Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed as austerity measures are bringing down inflation, albeit slowly. This will likely mean that the BOE will be on hold for some time.

Swissie (CHF): The Swissie has been on a tear of late as its safe-haven status has been exploited by those who do not want to own the US dollar. (Click chart to enlarge)

Dollar (USD): The Dollar has been moving higher after Bernanke backed away from his comments the other day that has led the market to believe that QE3 is very much on the table. CPI data came in largely as expected this morning, showing a headline figure of 3.6%. However, the Empire manufacturing index came in at –3.76 vs. an expectation of 5. Michigan consumer confidence figures are due out later this morning.

Yen (JPY): Much like the Swissie, the Yen has been appreciating of late as it’s a Dollar alternative for a safe haven play. Too much strengthening could cause the BOJ to take action, especially if QE3 looks more like a reality.

With the stress in the marketplace adding to the already declining economic data, it is only a matter of time before something gives. The Euro bank stress tests are intended to instill confidence in an already skeptical market and if the tests are deemed to not be rigid enough, then this may become a non-issue. Nevertheless, expect volatility surrounding the release.

Here in the US, we have a different kind of stress over the debt ceiling debate. President Obama will be speaking on it later this morning but expect the same political rhetoric to take place. Meanwhile, markets that are already jittery over a worsening economy have extra reasons to be cautious. Potential US credit downgrades are adding fuel to fire, as they typically occur after the fact.

Prospects don’t look great for the global economy despite better than expected corporate stock earnings. There is a major disconnect between the markets and the real economy, so don’t be surprised if at some point they begin to resemble each other more realistically.

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Markets Call For Debt Deals Now!

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews.com on Jul 20, 2011 12:45:00 GMT



There is major optimism that tomorrow’s meeting of EU Finance Ministers in Brussels is going to produce a sensible solution to the debt crisis in Europe which means that the politics of doing the unpopular have been cast aside. This could come in the form of the bond buying from the emergency lending facility, which would essentially be quantitative easing to help keep individual countries’ yields low and then allow them to buy back later.


This situation practically mirrors what is going on here in the US with the debt ceiling debate, as the markets will take any solution at this point. While I personally don’t believe it’s a good idea to raise taxes in this economic climate, fixing loopholes is not the same thing. If unemployment gets worse as a result, then let the leaders bear the blame.

But we have been down this road before, where the markets anticipate a deal because they are weary and because it makes perfect sense; and then the politicians defy logic. By the end of this week we should have more clarity, and the risk appetite in the market is reflecting that sentiment.

In the UK, the release of the BOE rate policy meeting minutes confirmed there was no change of stance, though some have noted that there may be lesser resolve for additional bond purchases.

In the US, existing home sales are due out later this morning and yesterdays housing starts numbers surprised to the upside, showing that the housing market may not be dead just yet.

So this all adds up to risk taking this morning, with stocks and oil higher, and gold giving back prices gains as it sheds some of its safe haven status.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher on risk themes despite an index of leading indicators number that came in slightly negative, showing a decline of .1%. More pressing was the release of the RBA minutes, which showed that Central bank might not move on rates for some time.

 Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also mostly higher ahead of tomorrow’s release of consumer confidence figures. One item that has escaped attention is that the Chinese Yuan has appreciated the most in nearly 17 years (though still less than the weekly swings in Euro), which could be good for NZ exports.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie continues to approach 2011 highs vs. USD after yesterday’s hawkish statement from the BOC at the rate decision. Today’s release of the monetary policy report may confirm that if not for global instability, rates might be higher. Oil back to $99 is also pushing Loonie.

Euro (EUR): It’s make-or-break time for the Euro this week as the entire globe is looking for a resolution to the debt crisis. The major impediment so far has been German political opposition, but as world opinion moves against them, they may be forced to bite the bullet. While no one expects the solution to emerge tomorrow from the meeting in Brussels, the market is optimistic that significant steps will be taken. (Click chart to enlarge)

Pound (GBP): The Pound is bouncing off of earlier lows as the indeed the BOE confirmed that they are willing to turn a blind eye to inflation (some say up to CPI gains of 5%!) in order to ride out the government austerity. Tomorrow’s retail sales figures will show whether or not the consumer in the UK is active, or if they are heading straight for stagflation. (Click chart to enlarge)

Swissie (CHF): The Swissie has been the most-favored safe haven currency of late so naturally it is giving back some of those gains as risk appetite has increased due to increased market optimism. Tomorrow’s trade balance figures will show whether or not a stronger currency has damaged the trade balance significantly.

Dollar (USD): The market is hoping that yesterday’s news on housing starts carries over to existing home sales figures due out later this morning. However, if the data begins to improve too much, then the market may assume that QE3 is off of the table which may cause some Dollar strength. What is more likely though is that good news will be received well by the stock market, which has been reporting great corporate earnings.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly lower as safe haven demand has lessened. If the global economy can get past these two major debt hurdles, then it could be game on again for significant carry trades.

Markets are a forward-looking and discounting mechanism so gains we are seeing now are in anticipation of these debt problems getting fixed. This in and of itself does not mean that deals have been reached, however.

The politics surrounding all of these deals has been the major impediment so far, so the markets are saying just get it done. Uncertainty at this point is worse than bad policy and while the devil is in the details, the markets will decide later whether or not they approve. Let’s face it, I have very little confidence that any of these deals will be perfect, so just let the chips fall where they may.

If the markets do not see significant progress or agreements in principle to resolve these issues, then we could see this week’s gains vanish. For that is the problem with rising expectations; the letdowns hurt that much more!

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New York to Open Gay-Marriage Era as Lottery Winners Celebrate

July 22, 2011, 4:54 PM EDT
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By Esmé E. Deprez

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Two grooms and two brides now adorn mugs, rubber duckies and snow globes in the souvenir shop of the City Clerk’s office in Manhattan as New York state prepares to allow same-sex couples to marry.

The city received 823 lottery entries from couples for 764 spots available for marriage at clerks’ offices July 24, said Marc LaVorgna, a spokesman for Mayor Michael Bloomberg. To accommodate all of the couples who applied, the city increased the number of slots in Manhattan to 459 from 400, he said.

Jo-Ann Shain and Mary Jo Kennedy of Brooklyn, who have been together 29 years, entered the 48-hour lottery after it was announced on July 19.

“At first we thought maybe it will be crazy, that it’ll be a zoo,” Shain, a 58-year old freelance medical editor, said in a telephone interview. “Then it occurred to us that we’ve waited so long, have fought so hard, it would be crazy not to be there on such a historic day.”

Shain said the couple plans to be married by a friend, who is a judge, outside the Manhattan clerk’s office as their 22- year old daughter, Aliya, looks on.

With 19.4 million residents, New York is the sixth and most populous U.S. state to grant same-sex couples the right to wed, a move championed by Governor Andrew Cuomo and approved by the Legislature in Albany on June 24, the last day of its session. The victory for gay-rights advocates, which made headlines around the world, more than doubled the number of Americans free to marry either gender to 35 million.

Record Day

The couples to be wed July 24 will mark the city’s most in one day, Bloomberg said this week. The previous record was set on Valentine’s Day in 2003, when 621 couples tied the knot.

As of yesterday, 3,145 couples had preregistered for marriage licenses, said Mark Botnick, a spokesman for the mayor. Of that, about 2,200 are estimated to be same-sex couples, he said.

Clerks’ offices in all five boroughs, which are normally closed on Sunday, will open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at an additional estimated cost of $70,000, Botnick said. About 60 judges have volunteered to perform ceremonies, he said. The offices will remain open for two extra hours next week to handle the expected flood.

Three-Step Process

The Albany clerk’s office will provide licenses beginning at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday to 10 couples, according to the Empire State Pride Agenda. Clerks in Binghamton, Brighton, Brookhaven, Buffalo, Greenburgh, Ithaca, Niagara, North Hempstead, Oneonta, Rochester, Syracuse and Woodstock will also hold Sunday office hours, the Manhattan-based gay advocacy organization said.

All couples -- gay or straight -- face a three-step process to get married. They must obtain from a clerk a $35 marriage license, for which they can apply online or on site. Judges will be on hand to grant judicial waivers eliminating the state’s 24- hour waiting period. Couples may then have a clerk perform a civil marriage for $25 or hold a religious ceremony at another location.

Same-sex marriages in New York will be recognized in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Washington, D.C., where the practice is legal, as well as in Maryland and Rhode Island, according to the mayor’s office.

Debate began at a U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee meeting on July 20 on the proposed Respect for Marriage Act, which would let the federal government extend benefits such as Social Security and health-insurance coverage to same-sex married couples. It would end the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which bans recognition of those unions. The proposal wouldn’t require states to legalize same-sex marriages.

Rabbi to Preside

Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum of the Congregation Beth Simchat Torah in Manhattan’s Greenwich Village will marry people outside the Manhattan clerk’s office starting at 8:30 a.m. July 24. About 80 couples have signed up, with the final count depending on how many win the lottery, said Gabriel Blau, a congregation spokesman.

When Kleinbaum went to lobby for the marriage law’s passage in Albany, people pushed her and spat at her and said, “You are not a Jew,” Blau said.

Bloomberg plans to perform a marriage for John Feinblatt, his chief policy adviser, and Jonathan Mintz, the city’s commissioner for consumer affairs, at Gracie Mansion on July 24. The couple is the sole exception to the lottery.

The mayor is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent company Bloomberg LP.

--With assistance from Sarah Frier in New York and Victoria Pelham in Washington. Editors: Mark Schoifet, Stephen Merelman

To contact the reporter on this story: Esmé E. Deprez in New York at edeprez@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at mtannen@bloomberg.net


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-22/new-york-to-open-gay-marriage-era-as-lottery-winners-celebrate.html

Management Tips from an 80-Year-Old Badass

Florida Marlins skipper Jack McKeon may not Twitter, but so what? This octogenarian knows his baseball and runs a tight ship

By Joel Stein

Illustration by John Ueland; McKeon: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images; Field: Nick Laham/Getty Images

Not wearing a hearing aid is one of the many tricks Jack McKeon has learned during his six decades in baseball. “I used to be a very strong disciplinarian,” says McKeon, sitting in the Oakland Coliseum one recent afternoon as his players take batting practice. “Then I decided to back off a little bit. I don’t use the hearing aids because I don’t want to see a lot of things, and I don’t want to hear a lot of things.”

It may be too late for that. McKeon took over the last-place Florida Marlins on June 20, the day after then-manager Edwin Rodríguez quit. While Rodríguez wanted the Marlins to offer him a long-term contract, McKeon didn’t exactly need one. The 80-year-old’s appointment is almost without precedent in pro sports. In 2003 the Marlins hired a 72-year-old to take over a club filled with young, inexperienced players. That year, McKeon’s Marlins beat the New York Yankees in the World Series. Still, hiring a bona fide octogenarian is even harder to believe. The odds of McKeon winning the World Series this year (1 in 75, according to Vegas.com) are longer than the odds of him dying this year (1 in 15.5, according to Social Security’s actuarial tables).

While there are at least a dozen chief executive officers even older than McKeon—Hong Kong-based Run Run Shaw is, somewhat inexplicably, both a media mogul and 103 years old—none of them is running an outfit of men largely in their early 20s. Yet this management challenge doesn’t faze McKeon. “I got nine grandchildren, I’m in tune with what’s going on,” he says. “Maybe I’m not about to put my personal stuff on Facebook and all that crap, like the video stuff, whatever the hell they call it,” he explains, moving his thumbs as if he’s using a video-game console.

He doesn’t follow his players on Twitter, either. Marlins right fielder Logan Morrison recently posted, “McKeon asked me what I had going on tonite. Told him I was going home 2 play w/ Twitter. He replied ‘oh, what kind of dog is it?’ ” When I ask McKeon if he wants me to show him what his players are tweeting, he says: “No. I don’t care what they say. What do they say?” Then I show him Morrison’s tweets about his recent visit to Twitter headquarters, and McKeon makes a grumpy face. “I just want them to concentrate on baseball 100 percent once they enter that clubhouse. If he goes down to the minor leagues, he ain’t going to have any Twitter friends.”

Although affable, McKeon is known as a tough manager. During his first game this season, he benched his best player, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, for tardiness. He also pulled pitcher Randy Choate in the middle of a count. (“I’ve never had that happen before,” says Choate. “It worked.”) When he told his players they couldn’t hang out in the clubhouse during games, they knew he was serious; in 2003, McKeon locked the clubhouse doors and required players to hand him bathroom passes when they couldn’t hold it in any longer. He may be the only 80-year-old man who is willing and able to go three hours without peeing.

It’s taken McKeon decades to hone this management approach. “When you first start managing, you want the players to like you—so you let a lot of things slide,” he says. “You feel like these are veteran players and you need them on your side to help you.” However, McKeon eventually came to realize that “it doesn’t work that way. So when I come in, I try to establish me.” He’s learned that the best way to get personnel to buy into his detail-oriented program is by loosening them up—and playing to his own strengths. These days, one of McKeon’s signature bits is to call his players by the wrong name. When I ask him if this is really a bit, or if he actually has trouble telling Gaby Sanchez apart from Anibal Sanchez, he pauses and thinks. “They think, ‘He’s old. He forgot my name.’ So, s–t, I just go along with it.”

Britain’s Second-Quarter Economic Growth Probably Eased to 0.2%

July 23, 2011, 6:32 AM EDT
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By Fergal O’Brien and Mark Evans

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Britain’s second-quarter economic growth probably slowed as weak consumer spending continued to restrain the recovery, economists said.

Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent compared with a 0.5 percent increase in the first quarter, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. on July 26 in London.

Output was hit in the second quarter by supply disruptions stemming from the earthquake in Japan, while plants shut down and workers booked vacations to take advantage of consecutive four-day weekends in April to mark Easter and the royal wedding. Bank of England policy makers left their benchmark interest rate at a record low this month and warned that the current economic weakness may persist “for longer than previously thought.”

“The economy is likely to have eked out marginal growth at best in the second quarter, and there is a very real danger that it could have contracted modestly,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London, who forecasts 0.1 percent growth. “Activity clearly took a significant hit in April from the extra public holiday, but the softness of the economy runs deeper than this.”

Manufacturing growth slowed in June, while expansion among services companies remained “below trend,” Markit Economics Ltd. said in reports this month. Consumer confidence fell as Britons grew more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, Nationwide Building Society said on July 21.

Demand is being hit by government spending cuts while high inflation is eroding household incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. The economy has effectively stagnated since September, with the first quarter’s growth leaving the level of GDP no higher than it was in the third quarter of last year.

Four of the economists surveyed forecast a contraction in the second quarter, with Hetal Mehta at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. projecting a 0.3 percent drop in GDP. At the other end of the range is Azad Zangana at Schroders Plc, with a forecast for growth of 0.4 percent.

--Editors: Andrew Atkinson, Eddie Buckle

To contact the reporters on this story: Fergal O’Brien in London at fobrien@bloomberg.net; Mark Evans in London at mevans8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net

Man Charged in Deadliest Norway Attacks Since World War II

July 23, 2011, 6:10 AM EDT
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By Josiane Kremer and Stephen Treloar

(Adds Clinton comment in 13th paragraph.)

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Twin attacks in Norway, the deadliest since World War II, left 91 people dead after a gunman killed 84 people at a youth camp on an island near Oslo and a bomb explosion in the center of the capital killed seven people.

A 32-year-old Norwegian man was arrested on the island of Utoeya, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Oslo, and authorities have begun interrogating the suspect, police said at a press briefing today. The same person is likely behind the bombing and the shootings on the island, they said. The suspect’s name is Anders Behring Breivik, local media reported. Police declined to confirm the suspect’s name.

The man has been charged on two counts of “dangerous crime to society,” which means he could be sentenced to 21 years in prison, Norway’s toughest punishment, Roger Andresen, deputy Oslo police chief, told reporters today. The man is a Christian fundamentalist with right-wing tendencies, Andresen said.

The blast in central Oslo shattered windows at the office of Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg. Hundreds of youths were attending the camp organized by the youth wing of Stoltenberg’s Labor Party.

“Not since World War II has our country experienced a greater tragedy,” Stoltenberg said in a speech today. “For me, Utoeya was the paradise island of my youth that was transformed into hell.”

“The search may take a while as the island has a number of buildings and forested areas,” Anders Frydenberg, a spokesman for Oslo police, said by telephone today. He declined to say whether police believe the shooting was carried out by a single gunman or multiple people and declined to comment on the motives for the attack.

Man in Custody

“The police are not going to confirm his name,” Frydenberg said. “We have a man in custody and are asking him questions about shooting episodes at the island. We are still talking to him.”

Police “see a connection between the attack in Oslo center and the attack on the island because both attacks are at political sites in Norway,” he said. “The bomb blast in Oslo center was toward government buildings, which are being ruled by the Labor party. The youth camp was a Labor party youth camp. That’s the connection between the two attacks.”

Stoltenberg, called the attack on his office “cowardly” and said it wouldn’t interrupt government functioning. Stoltenberg was due to appear today at the youth gathering on Utoeya, Sponheim said. The suspected shooter, who wore a police uniform, wasn’t a police officer, he said.

‘A Lot Unclear’

Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said he contacted Stoltenberg to convey his condolences. “From a Swedish perspective, we’re following the ongoing development,” he said. “There is still a lot that is unclear about what has happened.”

Neighboring Sweden had a brush with what police treated as a possible terrorist attack in December when a suicide bomber injured two people in central Stockholm.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen sent a statement conveying his “deepest sympathy and solidarity” with the Norwegian people. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague described the bombing in a press release as “horrific.” China, Australia and New Zealand condemned the attack and expressed their condolences.

‘Peaceful People’

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton broke away from her prepared remarks at an entrepreneurship event in Bali, Indonesia, to express sympathy.

“This tragedy strikes right at the heart and soul of a peaceful people,” the top U.S. Diplomat said. “Norway is well known for its efforts to resolve conflict and bring people together.”

Before the explosion, a car drove into the government quarter, the police said in a statement. No government ministers were hurt, Stoltenberg told broadcaster NRK.

Eirik Borg, a back office worker at stockbrokerage Fearnley Fonds based near the scene, said he saw smoke billowing from the government quarter after hearing the blast.

‘Hard Impact’

“We felt the impact very hard throughout the building,” Borg said in a phone interview. “All the windows were breaking and we actually thought lightning hit our roof. From our terrace, we saw white smoke.”

The bombing initially sent Norway’s currency and stocks lower. The krone weakened as much as 1 percent against the dollar and was trading 0.4 percent lower at 8:30 p.m. local time yesterday. Against the euro, the krone was little changed at 7.7851 after losing as much as 0.4 percent. The benchmark OBX stock index fell as much as 0.4 percent before closing little changed.

“Large sections of the center of Oslo have been evacuated and the police are urging people to stay away from the center of the city and limit their use of mobile phones,” police said in a statement. Sponheim said police don’t expect further blasts.

The country’s Ministry of Petroleum suffered “massive damage” as a consequence of the blast, spokesman Haakon Smith- Isaksen said by phone. Norway is the world’s seventh-largest oil exporter.

“There was a huge explosion, the windows just blew out,” Smith-Isaken said. “There is much debris, people are injured.”

--With assistance from Frances Schwartzkopff in Copenhagen, Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki, Ola Kinnander, Johan Carlstrom, Adam Ewing, Kim McLaughlin and Toby Alder in Stockholm. Editors: Chad Thomas, Marianne Stigset

To contact the reporters on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at jkremer4@bloomberg.net; Stephen Treloar in Oslo at streloar1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net

Obama Deal With Boehner Upset by Last-Minute ‘Gang of Six’ Plan

July 23, 2011, 1:45 AM EDT
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By Julie Hirschfeld Davis

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama, running out of time to strike a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, had some bad news for House Speaker John Boehner on July 20.

The tax overhaul they had been discussing to raise $800 billion in revenue over a decade had to be bigger, Obama told Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor during an evening meeting in the Oval Office. Obama’s new offer: $1.2 trillion.

A new proposal by the “Gang of Six,” a bipartisan group of senators who were calling for $3.7 trillion in budget savings over 10 years to slash the deficit, had changed the dynamics of the accord that Obama and Boehner had been negotiating in closed-door talks for weeks, the president told the speaker.

The group, praised by both senior Republicans and Democrats for its mix of spending cuts and tax increases, proposed a bigger revenue target than Obama and Boehner were considering, according to officials on Capitol Hill and at the White House who gave their accounts of the talks on condition of anonymity.

And Obama, who had called for months for the sort of grand bargain the gang was offering, was going to have a hard time selling a deal that stopped short of that.

The turnabout ultimately led Boehner to walk out of the talks, he said last night, unraveling the progress that had been made toward a sweeping compromise to slice $3.5 trillion from the nation’s debt and raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before a default threatened Aug. 2.

Back to Beginning

The breakdown sent both sides back to the beginning with little room left to reach a deal to boost the nation’s borrowing authority in time to head off the default. Congressional leaders from both parties are to meet today at the White House in an effort to reach an accord.

“It’s the president who walked away from his agreement and demanded more money at the last minute,” Boehner, of Ohio, told reporters at an evening news conference on Capitol Hill, hours after calling Obama to tell him he was abandoning their negotiations. “Dealing with the White House is like dealing with a bowl of jello.”

It was the final breakdown in the private negotiations between Obama and Boehner over a politically challenging debt- reduction agreement both were eager to reach.

“We had very intense negotiations,” Obama said last night. “I’ve been left at the altar now a couple of times.”

The courtship began June 18, when Obama, 49, invited Boehner, 61, for a round of golf at Andrews Air Force Base. The two teamed up against Vice President Joe Biden, who was spearheading bipartisan talks on the deficit with congressional leaders, and Ohio Governor John Kasich, a friend of Boehner’s.

Bonding Session

More bonding session than policy debate, the president and the speaker beat Kasich and Biden, winning $2 each. Still, the golf date proved a turning point, spurring Obama and Boehner to begin one-on-one talks on a broad compromise. Four days later, Boehner was at the White House meeting privately with Obama to sketch out what the deal could look like.

The following day, Cantor, a Virginia Republican who has cultivated a close relationship with Tea Party-backed lawmakers leading the call for spending cuts, abandoned the bipartisan Biden-led talks after a half-dozen meetings. He said Democrats’ insistence on raising taxes made an agreement impossible. The group had been making slow but steady progress, identifying more than $1 trillion in spending cuts the two parties could agree on.

The following week, Obama held a news conference in which he accused Republicans of siding with corporate-jet owners over children and the elderly in the negotiations, and compared Congress’s work ethic unfavorably with that of his pre-teen daughters.

Dire Consequences

“The yellow light is flashing,” Obama said during the June 30 news conference, warning of dire consequences if Congress didn’t raise the borrowing limit before Aug. 2. Standard & Poor’s said it would downgrade U.S. debt to junk status in the event of a default, and the Senate canceled its July 4 recess to continue talking.

The following Sunday, July 3, Boehner and Obama met secretly at the White House to continue their talks. Enough progress was made that Obama appeared at a White House briefing on July 5 to say the nation had “a unique opportunity to do something big to tackle our deficit,” and announce he was summoning congressional leaders from both parties for talks at the White House July 7.

At the roughly 90-minute meeting, Obama polled congressional leaders about what kind of deal they were seeking -- a limited one of between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion over a decade, a medium-size agreement yielding about $3 trillion, or a big deal to cut $4 trillion off the debt.

Obama and Boehner both wanted to go big.

‘No Imminent Deal’

Still, Boehner -- cognizant of intense opposition among Republicans to any agreement that raised taxes -- cautioned that there was “no imminent deal about to happen,” saying there remained “serious disagreements.”

“We are this far apart,” Boehner told reporters, spreading his arms to indicate the gulf between himself and the president. Yet behind the scenes, his staff and Obama’s were beginning to exchange paper on the contours of a compromise to bridge that divide.

The White House was willing to consider major changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, including benefit cuts, that had previously been considered off-limits. Boehner was willing to discuss a tax overhaul that would raise revenue, until then dismissed by the Republicans as a tax increase.

Boehner’s aides, including Chief of Staff Barry Jackson and Policy Director Brett Loper, were haggling with Obama’s budget director Jack Lew and legislative liaison Rob Nabors on the details. Resistance was brewing in both parties to such a deal.

Pelosi Displeased

Meeting at the White House with Obama on July 8, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California vented her displeasure about the prospect of including Social Security and Medicare cuts in any deal, and told him such a package wouldn’t garner support among congressional Democrats.

On Capitol Hill, Boehner and other House leaders held a press conference to reiterate their opposition to tax increases. Still, negotiations continued into Saturday morning July 9, when a round of negotiating among Boehner’s and Obama’s aides yielded little progress in breaking remaining stalemates over details of the tax rewrite and entitlement cuts.

Later that day, Boehner phoned the president at Camp David to tell him he was pulling the plug on a broad deal and would seek a more limited measure.

“Despite good-faith efforts to find common ground, the White House will not pursue a bigger debt-reduction agreement without tax hikes,” Boehner said in a statement after the call.

No Stopgap Deal

Obama was still pressing for a broad agreement. He called a news conference on July 11 in which he ruled out the idea of signing a stopgap debt-limit boost and argued that the time was ripe for a major compromise to reduce the debt, whatever the political difficulties.

“We might as well do it now -- pull off the Band-Aid, eat our peas,” he said.

That didn’t stop Republican resistance. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky proposed a fallback plan on July 12 -- a “last choice” option, he called it -- that would allow Obama to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling $2.4 trillion in installments, requiring that the president lay out the same amount of spending cuts and giving Republicans several opportunities to vote “no.”

At the close of a White House meeting July 13, Cantor pressed Obama about a shorter-term debt measure, prompting a testy response from the usually low-key president.

More Than Reagan

Leaning back from the table, Obama told Cantor that he’d been personally negotiating the details of the debt deal for weeks -- more than Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush would have done -- because he wanted to reach a deal that was important for the country. If Republicans sent him legislation he couldn’t accept, he’d veto it and take it to the American people, Obama said before closing the meeting.

Republicans announced they would move forward the next week with legislation that would slash spending, cap future expenditures, and condition a $2.4 trillion debt-ceiling increase on passage of a balanced budget constitutional amendment. Behind the scenes, though, Boehner and Cantor began serious talks with Obama’s staff on a major compromise.

The House Republicans invited Obama’s chief of staff Bill Daley and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Boehner’s Capitol office suite on July 15 for a quiet meeting on a framework for a tax overhaul, according to House Republican leadership aides.

Cutting Medicare

Over coffee and bagels at the White House July 17, with Obama popping in periodically to check their progress, the four negotiators, now joined by Lew, moved toward a deal to slash discretionary spending by $1.2 trillion over a decade and set a process for overhauling entitlements and the tax code within six to eight months to save trillions more.

The White House would agree to cut $250 billion from Medicare and trim Social Security benefits through a change in the way their annual increase is calculated. Republicans would agree to a tax rewrite that would raise no more than $800 billion while lowering rates, a number blessed by Geithner, the Republican aides said.

The two sides remained divided over key details, including an enforcement mechanism to ensure the entitlement and tax targets were met. The White House rejected the Republicans’ idea that future borrowing authority be conditioned on achieving the goals, and Republicans opposed Obama’s insistence on raising taxes on high earners while keeping them at the same level for the middle class in the event the promised debt savings didn’t materialize, the aides said.

‘Grand Bargain’

On July 19, as Boehner’s staff awaited a counterproposal from Obama’s aides, Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia and Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, co-leaders of the Gang of Six, stood before about 50 senators in an ornate room on the first floor of the Capitol and pitched their long- awaited “grand bargain.” Obama made a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room to commend the outline, and Treasuries rallied on expectations of a long-term debt-reduction deal.

The president’s team told Boehner’s that their bottom line had changed based on the framework, a message Obama delivered to the speaker in person the next day at the White House, the Republican aides said. An administration official said the senators’ plan had changed the political dynamics in the push for a deal, making it harder to attract Democratic support for a proposal with a smaller revenue increase.

Obama Rebuffed

Still, Obama had no inkling Boehner was abandoning the talks until he began having trouble getting the speaker on the phone and Jackson stopped returning e-mails beginning the evening of July 21. Boehner’s office informed the president on July 22 at about 3:30 p.m. that the speaker would call Obama in two hours. Obama said he wanted to talk to Boehner right then and was rebuffed, administration officials told reporters.

The call came in as scheduled, not long after House Republican leadership aides finished briefing reporters about Boehner’s decision.

“Up until sometime early today when I couldn’t get a phone call returned, my expectation was that Speaker Boehner was going to be willing to go to his caucus and ask them to do the tough thing, but the right thing. I think it has proven difficult for Speaker Boehner,” Obama said at the White House.

“In the end,” Boehner wrote in a letter to Republican lawmakers detailing his decision, “we couldn’t connect.”

--With assistance from Mike Dorning, Kate Andersen Brower and Laura Litvan. Editors: Robin Meszoly, Mark McQuillan

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at Jdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva@bloomberg.net

Clinton Warns S. China Sea Spats Threaten Asia Peace, Trade

July 23, 2011, 1:12 AM EDT
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By Daniel Ten Kate and Nicole Gaouette

(Adds comments from State Department official in sixth paragraph.)

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned today that escalating tensions in the South China Sea risk disrupting trade flows and called on Asian countries to clarify territorial claims.

“The United States is concerned that recent incidents in the South China Sea threaten the peace and stability on which the remarkable progress of the Asia-Pacific region has been built,” Clinton told a regional security forum in Bali, Indonesia. “These incidents endanger the safety of life at sea, escalate tensions, undermine freedom of navigation, and pose risks to lawful unimpeded commerce.”

Clinton commended China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations for agreeing to guidelines for joint activities in the waters last week and urged them to accelerate a legally binding code of conduct. She called on countries to “exercise self-restraint” and avoid occupying uninhabited islands in the disputed waters.

The U.S.’s alliance with the Philippines and naval power in the Asia-Pacific has led to tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea as its own. The Philippines and Vietnam have pushed ahead with oil and gas exploration over objections from China, which has used patrol boats to disrupt hydrocarbon survey activities in disputed waters.

‘Clarify Claims’

Clinton called on the countries “to clarify their claims in the South China Sea in terms consistent with customary international law, including as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention,” Clinton said, according to prepared remarks that were given to reporters. “Consistent with international law, claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features.”

Clinton is asking states to lay out their claims very clearly and unambiguously and to explain the legal basis for them, said a State Department official present for meetings on the South China Sea. That will force countries to look carefully at their approach, especially given that almost all claims to the waters are exaggerated, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. has not ratified the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention.

‘Nine-Dash Map’

China last week rejected an attempt by the Philippines to have the UN’s International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea decide on the territorial dispute. The Philippines plans to ask another UN arbitration panel to demarcate disputed areas of the sea “to prove our claim,” Foreign Secretary Albert F. del Rosario said on July 20.

Along with the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have released statements to the UN saying China’s “nine-dash map” of the waters has no basis in international law.

China says its claims “are supported by abundant historical and legal evidence,” according to an April submission to the UN. It said the Philippines “started to invade and occupy” its islands in the 1970s.

Chinese ships cut survey cables of Vietnam Oil & Gas Group vessels twice in the past few months and in March chased away a boat working for U.K.-based Forum Energy Plc that was surveying the area. A Chinese frigate fired warning shots at Philippine trawlers on Feb. 25.

China’s actions in the waters provoked protests in Hanoi over the past month and prompted a group of Filipino lawmakers to travel last week to the disputed Spratly Islands, which are also claimed by Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam and China. All those countries except Brunei have troops stationed in the area.

“We believe that it’s important to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China,” Liu Weimin, spokesman for Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, told reporters yesterday after his meeting with Clinton. “I sense that the U.S. side understands the sensitivities of these issues.”

--Editor: Ben Richardson, Jim McDonald

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bali at dtenkate@bloomberg.net; Nicole Gaouette in Bali at ngaouette@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net

Not all doom and gloom despite defeat

We came to England with high hopes for the one-day series so it was a huge disappointment to lose 3-2. I thought we played some very good cricket but we had a couple of really poor games as well. Old Trafford was the closest match of the whole series and unfortunately we couldn't do quite enough to get over the line. It wasn't a polished performance from us and there are a lot of areas to improve on. But it's not all doom and gloom. We showed our fighting spirit and almost pulled the game around at the end.

It's actually quite frustrating looking back on the tour and thinking how good it could have been. We lost the Test series because of one session in Cardiff and in the one-day series it was down to a couple of batting collapses at crucial moments. We can't be too disappointed because we played some really good cricket and weren't outplayed for long periods of time. Hopefully the young players will have learned from their experiences in England.

It was definitely a missed opportunity not to make the most of an Old Trafford wicket that suited our style of cricket. But you still have to play a good game of cricket and we made an awful start by giving away too many runs in the first 10 overs. It was always going to be tough for us to come back from that. However, England were looking at getting 350 and we managed to haul them back brilliantly which was a great effort. But we lost the match in the first 10 overs. Despite chasing hard we made too many mistakes.

Our performance at Old Trafford really summed up one of our major problems on the tour when we lost three early wickets in the run-chase and it's something we need to put right. However, on this occasion we felt we had to go quite hard against the new ball so that it was more comfortable for the boys coming in lower down the order. It was always going to be much harder for them to score at seven or eight an over. Angelo Mathews batted really well while Jeevan Mendis and Dinesh Chandimal played superbly and Kumar Sangakkara helped give us a base from where we almost managed to get the total. There is plenty of room to improve but there are promising signs for the future.

One of the key aims of this tour was to try and identify a new group of Sri Lanka cricketers. After the World Cup we knew there would be some changes and we needed to introduce players with an eye on the next tournament in four years time. We have found some really talented players; Dinesh has played superbly and Jeevan has impressed. Angelo has been with us for a while and we knew what he was capable of, but with Chandimal and Mendis we found out more about them and hopefully we can move forward with them. We have some areas we still need to try and fill; we could do with finding some more fast bowlers and another allrounder or two for the next World Cup. These are things we will keep looking out for but the early signs have been really good.

Our captain, Tillakaratne Dilshan, had a tough one-day series but I've played enough cricket to realise we all go through slumps in form. He is a fantastic player who can turn matches around on his own and when you remove that kind player from the equation it makes it tough. But Dilshan is a fighter. I'm sure he won't change his game and he'll bounce back.

             

Sangakkara touched on a very sensitive issue, but it's something everyone was talking about back home, not just us here. I think it was a great speech.

       

As a captain I thought he handled things pretty well. It was a big, big tour for him but I think he showed what he was capable of with that hundred at Lord's, which he made with a broken thumb. If it hadn't been for that injury I'm sure his form in the one-day series would have been a lot different. He would have been able to prepare for the series properly but instead he had to wait two weeks while his thumb healed. There were a lot of things that went against him but, overall, there had been a lot of changes to the team after the World Cup and I thought he did really well.

I was back down the order to No. 4 at Old Trafford but I'm not quite sure what my long-term role will now be. These are things we need to keep working on as we introduce youngsters. It was just a tactical decision and it didn't work for us that day, but on another day it will. In the future, I'm going to be very flexible to see what's best for the team. If that means opening the batting I'll be happy to fill that position. It's all about finding the right balance.

Last week I talked about the challenges facing Alastair Cook as he leads England's one-day cricket forward and both he and his team were impressive in the last two matches. It will take time for him to settle into the captaincy and also for the other players to work around him. They have some quality players in that middle order and everyone has to find their individual roles and then be consistent with that. Cook is a very good player, he's proved that in Test cricket and it's a great challenge to bring that to one-day cricket.

One of major talking points that came up during the series was Kumar's MCC Spirit of Cricket Lecture. I wasn't at the actual event, but know how long he spent writing the speech between the matches. I listened to it afterwards and it was very impressive. A lot of people have taken an interest. It was a bit controversial in places but said some important things about Sri Lanka cricket and what it means to people. He touched on a very sensitive issue, but it's something everyone was talking about back home, not just us here. I think it was a great speech.

We are finishing the tour with a couple of matches in Scotland, but our next major series is against Australia at home. We fancy our chances against anyone in our own conditions, which we see as a fortress. We are very confident and it will be more great exposure for the younger guys who learnt so much on this tour of England. We'll need to be at our best to beat the Australians but we are looking forward to the challenge. There should be some really interesting cricket coming up in the next few months. Hopefully we can kick-start our Test and one-day form back in Sri Lanka. This has been a tough tour but enjoyable and we need to learn lessons from it.

Chandimal, Gunaratne carry Ruhuna to win

ESPNcricinfo staff

July 21, 2011


Ruhuna kicked-off the Sri Lanka Cricket Inter-Provincial Twenty20 Tournament with a convincing 40-run win against Kandurata at the R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo. Being asked to bat, Ruhuna put on a competitive 154 for 7, driven by a knock of 63 off 53 balls by Dinesh Chandimal. The chase was off to a terrible start, as offpinner Janaka Gunaratne - who opened the bowling for Ruhuna - and some poor running combined to reduce Kandurata to 4 for 3 in the fourth over. Kandurata didn't recover, slipping to 27 for 5 and 30 for 6, before a rapid, unbeaten 55 from No. 8 Farveez Maharoof carried them to a respectable 114 for 7 in 20.

In the other game of the day at the same venue, Wayamba gained a point against Basnahira by winning a bowl-out, after the match was abandoned due to rain without a ball being bowled.

Sri Lanka A set tough run chase

ESPNcricinfo staff

July 22, 2011


Sri Lanka 176 and 71 for 1 need 392 more runs to beat Leicestershire 341 and 297 for 8 dec
Scorecard

Sri Lanka A face a huge final-day run chase after being set 463 by Leicestershire although started briskly to reach 71 for 1 despite losing a wicket to the first ball of their second innings.

Leicestershire built their lead at a steady pace with useful contributions throughout the order. Greg Smith hit 67 and took his second-wicket stand with James Taylor to 102 before Sri Lanka staged a mini fightback.

Four wickets fell for 37, including two to offspinner Sachithra Senanayake, but Leicestershire's advantage was always substantial. It was further extended by Wayne White (57) and Tom New (62) as they added 129 in 28 overs to take the game away from the visitors.

Sri Lanka didn't get the solid start they needed to the chase as Malinda Warnapura was caught behind first ball off Nadeem Malik but Lahiru Thirimanne, who was part of the recent Test side that toured England, and Bhanuka Rajapaksascore freely during a truncated final session.

RUMESH RATNAYAKE APPOINTED AS HEAD COACH FOR AUSTRALIAN SERIES 15 July 2011

Minister of Sports Honorable Mahindananda Aluthgamage has approved the appointment of former Sri Lankan Test and One day player, Rumesh Ratnayake as Sri Lanka’s Head coach for the forthcoming Test, One day and T20 series against the Australians.
Ratnayake made his Test debut against New Zealand in 1982-1983 at Christchurch. He took 73 Test wickets in a career which spanned 26 Test Matches.
Rumesh Ratnayake with his whippy action, lively pace and bounce was Sri Lanka’s strike bowler during his playing days. He made his ODI debut against the Indians in Bangalore in 1982, and captured 76 ODI Wickets in his illustrious career, which ended in December 1993.

Rumesh Ratnayake was a member of the Sri Lanka Team that won its first ever Test in 1985, after the Country gained Test status in 1982. He is a recipient of two level three coaching certificates, level 3 Australia in 2009, and ACC level 3 in 2010. Rumesh is currently an Asia Cricket Council development officer, domiciled in Malaysia.

KANDY-AKURANA ELECTION FIGHT (VIDEO)

ELECTION CLASH (VIDEO) IN AKURANA

Yesterday in Akurana electorate in Kandy District an election clash had erupted between supporters of the United National Freedom Party and the United National Party. It was revealed and reported by the Deputy Minister Faiz Mustapha, that the UNP supporters had thronged the UNFP office premises and had started the fight. The following video obtained from the ‘ U Tube

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Ramith-‘OBSERVER SCHOOLBOY CRICKETER’ OF THE YEAR 2011

Observer Schoolboy Cricketer of the Year 2011 is Ramith Rambukwella

As in the previous years the’ Observer Schoolboy cricketer of the year 2011’ was selected by sending coupons appeared in the Sunday Observer newspaper. Ramith Rambukwella, of Royal College, the son of the Media Minister Keheliya Rambukwella was elected the winner of the coveted trophy. It is pertinent to mentioned that he had polled 50,000 more votes that the amount of votes polled by the runner- up

Thailand’s minimum wage increase raises concern

    July 17, 2011
    Boris Sullivan

The private sector has expressed its concern over the plan of the new Pheu Thai-led government to raise minimum wage to 300 baht per day across the country, saying that the measure will prompt an increase of 140 billion baht a year to the capital labor cost.

Thai Chamber of Commerce TCC Vice-Chairperson Pongsak Assakul said the domestic private sector and a number of foreign investors have already been worried about the huge impact from the upcoming government’s policy on the production cost.
hundreds baht banknote

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day



Mr Pongsak viewed that small and medium businesses are likely to receive impacts the most. He suggested that the government enforce assistance packages in order to alleviate the consequences if it really wants to forge ahead with the minimum wage adjustment.

Apart from the aforementioned impact, it is worrying that Thai and foreign investors might shift their production base here to other countries which offer lower wages but have similar investment climate.

Nevertheless, the TCC vice-president stressed that the Thai business sector is ready to work and discuss with the new government closely for long-term benefits of the country.

via Private sector worrying about minimum wage rise : National News Bureau of Thailand.

The Pheu Thai Party earlier promoted raising the minimum wage of workers across the country to Bt300 per day and starting a  minimum salary for new graduates from Bt15,000 per month, campaign promises which are believed to have drawn a large number of votes for the party in Sunday’s election.

Mr Jarupong said the Pheu Thai-led government will raise the minimum salary per month to Bt15,000 $500 for civil servants and state enterprise employees this October, while a minimum daily wage hike is expected to begin in January 2012, as the government must talks with the private sector first.

The wage increase will be put into effect after the government creates better understanding on the matter with the private sector and finds appropriate solutions for them such as a corporate income tax reduction and provision of new export markets, according to Mr Jarupong.”The policy on minimum wage rise to Bt300 per day is aimed at helping grassroots people. We affirm that this policy will be equally implemented in every province,” Mr Jarupong promised.

Prime minister-to-be Yingluck Shinawatra on Wednesday said she welcomes opinions and comments from the business community on her Pheu Thai Party campaign pledge to increase Thailand’s minimum wage to Bt300 per day as discussion on pros and cons was needed before implementation.

The private sector aired its disagreement with the planned daily minimum wage, branding it as only political campaign ploy to win votes from the electorate.

Ms Yingluck said all opinions and comments were welcome as her Pheu Thai Party is willing to discuss the matter with all stakeholders.

    “Pheu Thai is not rushing to increase the daily minimum wage without thinking about the negative impact and damages that may arise,”

she said, referring to the consequences of such an action. “I am confident that the issue can be discussed.”

Asked whether she is concerned that the plan to increase the minimum wage might not be put into practice, Ms Yingluck said, “As long as there is a will to do so, (we) must clarify to make it clear to the public.”

Thailand’s election-winning Pheu Thai Party announced after the July 3 election that it expects to raise the daily minimum wage for workers nationwide to Bt300 (US$10) as early as January next year and a minimum starting salary for university graduates of Bt15,000 (US$500) per month, as promised in its election campaign.

Meanwhile, Buri Ram Chamber of Commerce Chairman Weeradet Tangtrongwetchakit urged the new government to review the plan as it could negatively impact companies and other employers, making them eventually unable to afford employing workers and would be forced to reduce their number.

This would lead to unemployment, he said, adding that the increase of minimum wage should be done gradually, step by step, not leapfrogging in one action.

The government, on the other hand, should provide measures to support both employers and employees, he said.

An owner of a textile factory in Kalasin, Suk Yubomchu, said he wanted government to come up with measures to help enterpreneurs as higher wage could mean higher production costs which would burden them.

“If the government cannot help entrepreneurs, they then would be forced to close their factories,” he said. (MCOT online news)